Systems
Complex systems don’t respond to intervention the way simple systems do. Push on one variable, others shift to compensate. Optimize for one metric, others degrade. Solve a problem, create two more.
Donella Meadows identified leverage points in systems — places where small interventions produce large effects. But the highest-leverage points (paradigms, goals, system structure) resist change, while low-leverage points (parameters, subsidies) are easy to adjust but accomplish little.
Much of policy failure stems from ignoring system dynamics. The Cobra Effect: bounties on cobras led to cobra farming. Goodhart’s Law: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Jevons Paradox: efficiency gains increase total consumption.
These patterns repeat across domains because they reflect structural properties of complex adaptive systems, not domain-specific features.
Systems develop memory. Hysteresis means the path matters — you can’t simply reverse to return to a prior state. Shifting baselines mean each generation normalizes its starting conditions, slowly drifting without awareness.
The lesson: humility about intervention. Complex systems demand respect. Probe carefully, expect surprises, maintain reversibility when possible.
Related: feedback loops, antifragility, galls law, selection