Path Dependence

The QWERTY keyboard was designed in 1873 to prevent typewriter jams by separating common letter pairs. The mechanical constraint vanished a century ago. QWERTY persists.

Alternatives exist. Dvorak is measurably faster. But the installed base of trained typists, the network of compatible systems, the sheer weight of habit — these lock in an arbitrary choice made for obsolete reasons.

Path dependence means where you end up depends on how you got there. Small early advantages compound into large later dominance. Initial conditions matter more than underlying quality.

VHS beat Betamax not because it was better but because it got slightly ahead. The larger installed base attracted more movies. More movies attracted more buyers. More buyers attracted more movies. A small early lead became insurmountable.

The market tipped to the inferior standard. And stayed there.

This happens constantly. Railroad gauges, electrical standards, programming languages, social platforms. Once enough people invest in a standard, switching becomes collectively irrational even if individually sensible.

Brian Arthur called this “increasing returns.” The more people use something, the more valuable it becomes, the more people use it. The feedback loop locks in whatever got ahead first.

The implications are uncomfortable.

You can’t always get to the best outcome by choosing the best action now. The best outcome might require a different history. And you can’t change history.

Early interventions have outsized effects. Founding moments matter. Standards battles are existential, not trivial. And some failures are permanent. The branch point is passed. The alternatives are pruned.

I find this depressing and clarifying in equal measure. It means timing matters more than quality, sometimes. It also means the moments when things are still fluid are the moments to pay attention.