The First Four Shots

Statistical analysis of professional tennis reveals where matches are actually won: the first four shots. Serve, return, serve+1, return+1. The majority of decisive action happens before rallies develop.

At the 2012 US Open, only 7 men and 14 women had winning percentages from baseline rallies. Andy Murray won Wimbledon 2016 while winning only 52% of baseline points. From the back of the court, even champions barely break even.

The front of the point — serve patterns, return positioning, the first groundstroke — determines outcomes. Yet these shots receive the least practice time.

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The perception gap explains the mismatch. Long rallies look impressive. Highlight reels feature extended exchanges with dramatic winners. But those rallies are statistically rare, and surviving them requires only not losing — a 50/50 proposition for top players.

The serve+1 (what you do immediately after serving) and return+1 (what you do immediately after returning) are the highest-leverage shots. They’re also the least intuitive to practice because they depend on the opponent’s response. Drilling groundstrokes is easier than simulating point situations.

Tournament players who understand this structure their practice around the first four shots. Not general rallying but specific patterns: serve wide, attack the short return. Return deep down the middle, anticipate the response.

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The principle generalizes. The 80/20 rule suggests most outcomes come from few inputs. The first four shots is the tennis version — practice time should flow to where results actually come from, not where practice feels productive.

This applies to any domain where visible work differs from impactful work. Long rallies feel like tennis. But matches are won before they happen.

Related: [[winning-ugly]], [[slack]]