Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960–) is a former trader turned philosopher of risk. His Incerto series — Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game — develops a worldview around fat tails, fragility, and what survives.

His style is polarizing: aphoristic compression delivered with aggression. The tone is part of the brand. But when he’s at his best, the ideas are portable and hard to forget. Antifragility, skin in the game, Lindy effect — these compress into usable heuristics.

His core move: use extremes (tail risks, ruin) to force correct thinking where averages lie. Redefine the event class correctly, then argue what robustness requires.

Related: [[antifragility]], [[fat-tails]], [[risk-vs-uncertainty]], [[lindy-effect]], [[selection]]